Roda keberuntungan

Hanya sedikit penguna analisa teknikal yang dapat secara konsisten dan akurat memprediksi hara di masa depan. Namun demikian, meskipun Anda tidak dapat secara akuran memprediksi harga, analisa teknikal dapat membantu Anda untuk secara konsisten mengurangi resiko dan memperbaiki keputusan investasi.
Analogi terbaik tentang bagaimana analisa teknikal dapat memperbaiki keputusan investasi adalah melihat pada roda keberuntungan. Penulis menggunakan analogi ini secara berhati-hati, penjudi mempunyai sedikit control jika dibandingkan dengan investor(namun demikian, ada banyak investor yang bertindak seperti penjudi, maka judi mungkin adalah analogi yang cocok untuk mereka).
Tempat judi memperoleh keuntungan dari roda keberuntungan, tidak denagn mengatahui nomor apa yang akan keluar, tetapi dengan meningkatkan keberungtungan dengan penambahan “0” dan”00”
Kejadian itu sangat mirip dalam hal berikut ini, ketika seorang investor membeli saham, dia tidak mengetahui apakah harganya akan naik. Tetapi jika dia membeli saham ketika harganya dalam trend naik, setelah periode sell-off(penjualan), dan ketika suku bunga turun, dia akan meningkatkan kesempatannya untuk memperoleh keuntungan. Ini bukan judi, tetapi perhitungan yang bijaksana. Namun demikian, ada banyak investor yang membeli saham tanpa berusaha mengatahui situasi dan kondisinya.
Kabelikan dari sesuatu yang dipercaya banyak orang, Anda tidak perlu mengetahui berapa harga suatu saham di masa depan untuk memperoleh keuntungan . Tujuan Anda semestinya cukup meningkatkan kesempatan utuk melakukan perdangana secara menguntungkan. Bahkan jika Anda melakukan kecenderungan jangka panjang, menengah atau pendek. Anda akan meningkatkan kesempatan yang tidak Anda miliki tanpa analisa teknis.
Lihat grafik MERC dimana tren secara jelas menurun dan tidak ada tanda-tanda untuk berbalik. Meskinpun perusahaan mungkin mempunyai prospek future earnings yang baik dan data fundamental yang baik, adalah tidak logis membeli saham sampai ada tanda-tanda teknis bahwa tren berbalik.




Wouldn't you love to be a business owner without ever having to show up at work? Imagine if you could sit back, watch your company grow, and collect the dividend checks as the money rolls in! This situation might sound like a pipe dream, but it's closer to reality than you might think. As you've probably guessed, we're talking about owning stocks. This fabulous category of financial instruments is, without a doubt, one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. Stocks are a part, if not the cornerstone, of nearly any investment portfolio. When you start on your road to financial freedom, you need to have a solid understanding of stocks and how they trade on the stock market. Over the last few decades, the average person's interest in the stock market has grown exponentially. What was once a toy of the rich has now turned into the vehicle of choice for growing wealth. This demand coupled with advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. Despite their popularity, however, most people don't fully understand stocks. Much is learned from conversations around the water cooler with others who also don't know what they're talking about. Chances are you've already heard people say things like, "Bob's cousin made a killing in XYZ company, and now he's got another hot tip..." or "Watch out with stocks--you can lose your shirt in a matter of days!" So much of this misinformation is based on a get-rich-quick mentality, which was especially prevalent during the amazing dotcom market in the late '90s. People thought that stocks were the magic answer to instant wealth with no risk. The ensuing dotcom crash proved that this is not the case. Stocks can (and do) create massive amounts of wealth, but they aren't without risks. The only solution to this is education. The key to protecting yourself in the stock market is to understand where you are putting your money.

Masa depan dapat ditemukan di masa lalu

Jika harga didasarkan pada harapan investor, maka mengetahui data fundamental menjadi kurangpenting daripada mengatahui harapan investor. Ini tidak berarti bahwa mengetahui data fundamental adalah tidak penting, tetap penting karena selalu ada persetujuan atau consensus yang cukup kuat tentang future earnings dari suatu saham di mana para investor tidak dapat tidak sejutu.
Analisa teknikal adalah proses melakukan analisa harag dimasa lalu dalam usaha untuk mampu memprediksi harga di masa depan. Ini dilakukan dengan cara membandingkan gerakna harga saat ini (yaitu, harapan saat ini) dengan gerakan harga di masa lalu yang sebanding untuk memprediksi harga di masa depan yang logis. Pengguna analisa teknikal yang setia mendefinisikan proses ini karena fakta menunjukkan bahwa sejarah selalu terulang, sementara pengguna yang lain cukup mengatakan bahwa kita dapat menarik manfaat dari masa lalu.



Wouldn't you love to be a business owner without ever having to show up at work? Imagine if you could sit back, watch your company grow, and collect the dividend checks as the money rolls in! This situation might sound like a pipe dream, but it's closer to reality than you might think. As you've probably guessed, we're talking about owning stocks. This fabulous category of financial instruments is, without a doubt, one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. Stocks are a part, if not the cornerstone, of nearly any investment portfolio. When you start on your road to financial freedom, you need to have a solid understanding of stocks and how they trade on the stock market. Over the last few decades, the average person's interest in the stock market has grown exponentially. What was once a toy of the rich has now turned into the vehicle of choice for growing wealth. This demand coupled with advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. Despite their popularity, however, most people don't fully understand stocks. Much is learned from conversations around the water cooler with others who also don't know what they're talking about. Chances are you've already heard people say things like, "Bob's cousin made a killing in XYZ company, and now he's got another hot tip..." or "Watch out with stocks--you can lose your shirt in a matter of days!" So much of this misinformation is based on a get-rich-quick mentality, which was especially prevalent during the amazing dotcom market in the late '90s. People thought that stocks were the magic answer to instant wealth with no risk. The ensuing dotcom crash proved that this is not the case. Stocks can (and do) create massive amounts of wealth, but they aren't without risks. The only solution to this is education. The key to protecting yourself in the stock market is to understand where you are putting your money.

Analisa Fundamental

Jika kita semua seratus persen logis dan mampu memisahkan emosi dari keputusan investasi, analisa fundamental – yaitu pengukuran harga berdasarkan pendapatn di masa depan (future earnings) – akan dapat bekerja secara konsisten. Dan karena kita mempunyai harapan yang sama yang seratus persen logis, harga akan berubah jika laporan keuangan kuarlatan atau berita yang relevan dikeluarkan. Investor selanjutnya akan mencari data fundamental yang “terlewati” dalam usaha untuk menemukan saham-saham yang harganya lebih murah dari harga semestinya.
Teori pasar efisien yang sering diperdebatkan mengatakan bahwa harga suatu saham pada suatu saat sudah mencerminkan segala sesuatu yang diketahui tentnag saham tersebut pada saat tersebut. Teori ini menyimpulkan bahwa tidak mungkin memprediksikan harga, karena harga sudah mencerminakan segala sesuatu yang diketahui tentang saham tersebut.


Wouldn't you love to be a business owner without ever having to show up at work? Imagine if you could sit back, watch your company grow, and collect the dividend checks as the money rolls in! This situation might sound like a pipe dream, but it's closer to reality than you might think. As you've probably guessed, we're talking about owning stocks. This fabulous category of financial instruments is, without a doubt, one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. Stocks are a part, if not the cornerstone, of nearly any investment portfolio. When you start on your road to financial freedom, you need to have a solid understanding of stocks and how they trade on the stock market. Over the last few decades, the average person's interest in the stock market has grown exponentially. What was once a toy of the rich has now turned into the vehicle of choice for growing wealth. This demand coupled with advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. Despite their popularity, however, most people don't fully understand stocks. Much is learned from conversations around the water cooler with others who also don't know what they're talking about. Chances are you've already heard people say things like, "Bob's cousin made a killing in XYZ company, and now he's got another hot tip..." or "Watch out with stocks--you can lose your shirt in a matter of days!" So much of this misinformation is based on a get-rich-quick mentality, which was especially prevalent during the amazing dotcom market in the late '90s. People thought that stocks were the magic answer to instant wealth with no risk. The ensuing dotcom crash proved that this is not the case. Stocks can (and do) create massive amounts of wealth, but they aren't without risks. The only solution to this is education. The key to protecting yourself in the stock market is to understand where you are putting your money.

Faktor Manusia

Harga suatu saham mencerminkan sebuah persetujuan atau konsensus,yaitu harga dimana pembelinya setuju untuk membelinya dan penjualnya setuju untuk menjualnya. Harga dimana investor untuk membeli atasu menjual tergantung pada apa harapannya. Jika dia mengharapkan harga saham akan naik, dia akan membelinya; jika dia mengharapkan harga saham turun, dia akan menjualnya. Situasi sederhana ini adalah tantangan utama dalam memperkirakan gerakan harga saham, karena mengacu pada harapan manusia (seperti kita ketahui, manusia tidak dapat secara mudah dimengerti atau diprediksi). Fakta ini membuat tidak ada system perdagangan saham yang dapat bekerja secara konsisten.
Karena factor manusia, penulis melihat banyak keputusan investasi didasarkan pada kriteria yang tidak relevan. Hubungan kita dengan keluarga, tetangga, boss, penghasilan dan kesuksesan dan kegagalan di masa lampau, semua mempengaruhi keyakinan, harapan dan keputusan kita.
Harga saham ditentukan oleh para manager investasi,pialang dan para investor pribadi, baik yang besar maupun yang kecil, baik kaya maupun yang ingin kaya. Luasnya para pelaku bursa dalam industri pasar modal telah menyebabkan ketidakpastian tetapi sekaligus menjadi factor pemikat dalam perdagangan saham.




Basic Stock
Wouldn't you love to be a business owner without ever having to show up at work? Imagine if you could sit back, watch your company grow, and collect the dividend checks as the money rolls in! This situation might sound like a pipe dream, but it's closer to reality than you might think. As you've probably guessed, we're talking about owning stocks. This fabulous category of financial instruments is, without a doubt, one of the greatest tools ever invented for building wealth. Stocks are a part, if not the cornerstone, of nearly any investment portfolio. When you start on your road to financial freedom, you need to have a solid understanding of stocks and how they trade on the stock market. Over the last few decades, the average person's interest in the stock market has grown exponentially. What was once a toy of the rich has now turned into the vehicle of choice for growing wealth. This demand coupled with advances in trading technology has opened up the markets so that nowadays nearly anybody can own stocks. Despite their popularity, however, most people don't fully understand stocks. Much is learned from conversations around the water cooler with others who also don't know what they're talking about. Chances are you've already heard people say things like, "Bob's cousin made a killing in XYZ company, and now he's got another hot tip..." or "Watch out with stocks--you can lose your shirt in a matter of days!" So much of this misinformation is based on a get-rich-quick mentality, which was especially prevalent during the amazing dotcom market in the late '90s. People thought that stocks were the magic answer to instant wealth with no risk. The ensuing dotcom crash proved that this is not the case. Stocks can (and do) create massive amounts of wealth, but they aren't without risks. The only solution to this is education. The key to protecting yourself in the stock market is to understand where you are putting your money.

Latar Belakang

Latar Belakang
Terminologi "analisa teknikal"adalah terminologi yang kompleks untuk metode yang paling dasar dalam investasi. Secara sederhana, analisa teknikal adalah studi harga dengan menggunakan grafik sebagai alat utama.
Asal-usul dari analisa teknikal yang digunakan saat ini berasal dari Dow Theoy yang disusun pada sekitar tahun 1900 yang silam oleh Charles Dow. Baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung dari Dow Theory, asal-usul ini mencakup prinip-prinsip seperti tren harga,harga melakukan diskon pasa semua informasi yang diketahui,konfirmasi dan penyimpangan (divergence, volume mencerminakan perubahan harga dan dukungan/tahanan (support/resistance). Dan tentu saja, Dow JoneIndustrial Avarage yang dipantau secara luas di seluruh dunia adalah hasil langsung dari Dow Theory. Sumbangan Charles Dow dalam analisa teknikal yang digunakan saat ini tidak dapat diabaikan. Perhatiannya pada dasar-dasar gerakan harga saham menciptakan metode yang betul-betul baru dalam mengalisa pasar.


Some history
The term "technical analysis" is a complicated sounding name for a very basic approach to investing. Simply put, technical analysis is the study of prices, with charts being the primary tool.
The roots of modern-day technical analysis stem from the Dow Theory, developed around 1900 by Charles Dow. Stemming either directly or indirectly from the Dow Theory, these roots include such principles as the trending nature of prices, prices discounting all known information, confirmation and divergence, volume mirroring changes in price, and support/resistance. And of course, the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average is a direct offspring of the Dow Theory.
Charles Dow's contribution to modern-day technical analysis cannot be understated. His focus on the basics of security price movement gave rise to a completely new method of analyzing the markets.

Pengantar

Japanese Candlesticks adalah salah satu Teknikal Analysis tools yang kuno tapi sangat populer bagi trader. Candlestick sudah dipergunakan di Jepang sejak tahun 1700-an dan belum di kenal di dunia barat sebelum awal 1990-an. Sejak itu candlestick menjadi chart yang digemari dan menggantikan open-high-low-close bar chart.

Terdapat ratusan indikator untuk menilai Teknikal Analysis dari sebuah saham. Ibarat membaca sebuah peta. Kita akan lebih dipermudah dengan adanya plang-plang penunjuk jalan. Sebagai seorang trader professional, indikator-indikator tersebut dapat anda gunakan sebagai acuan untuk entry/exit point.

Candlestick telah digunakan oleh trader untuk melihat indikasi reversal ataupuan titik pembalikkan suatu gerakan trend saham. Konfirmasi sinyal candlestick yang diterapkan selalu berhasil mengikutsertakan transaksi-transaksi yang menguntungkan dalam sebuah trend yang sedang terjadi dalam gerakan bursa.

Jika kita dapat memprediksikan pola gerakan market secara benar, maka anda telah mempunyai sebuah dasar untuk berhasil dalam investasi anda pada bursa efek.

Sangatlah menyenangkan jika kita dapat mengikuti gerakan market. Melalui perencanaan keuangan(money management) dan disiplin yang ketat, kita hanya menyaksikan profit yang terus mengalir ke dalam saldo rekening kita.

Japanese Candlestick are one of the most powerful technical analysis tools in the trader's toolkit. While candlestick charts date back to Japan in the 1700's this form of charcing did not become popular in the western world until the early 1990's. Since that time, they have become the default mode of charting for serious tekcnical replacing the open-high-low-close bar chart.